NEW HOME PRICES ARE GOING UP...
Fastest-growing section of Pasco? The State Road 54 corridor, from Trinity to Zephyrhills.

by James Thorner
Times Staff Writer

Mark 2004 as the year when new home bargains in Pasco County mostly vanished when three-bedrooms "from the 120s" became three-bedrooms "from the 160s," when home sales of $1-million lost their ability to shock and awe.

By the end of last year, new home prices, egged on by sales in communities such as Seven Oaks in Wesley Chapel and Wilderness Lake Preserve in Land O' Lakes, averaged $220,000. Just three years earlier prices averaged $150,000.

And there were a lot of homes to sell. The county set yet another construction record, issuing 6,399 permits for single family homes and another 2,000 permits for townhomes, apartments and other multifamily housing.

Northwest Hillsborough and Pinellas counties are running out of land. If you want a house in a convenient commuting distance of Tampa, Pasco's among the few alternatives. Most of the new homes are rising in the State Road 54 corridor, from Trinity to Zephyrhills.

"I think in Pasco such growth is sustainable if they can approve the lots fast enough," said Tampa Bay area housing analyst Marvin Rose.

The housing selection in Pasco is beginning to shift. Yes, you still have dozens of nature-happy subdivisions of the Thousand Oaks, Oakstead, Oak grove and Seven Oaks variety.

But expect more new neighborhoods with Spanish-Mediterranean flair, like Bella Verde, Southeast of Interstate 75 and and State Road 52 and Tierra Del Sol on U.S. 41 in Land O' Lakes.

Traditional neighborhood design - think homes with front porches, detached garages and alleys - will likely spread from it's Pasco home base, the Longleaf neighborhood on State Road 54 between Gunn Highway and Little Road.

Wiregrass Ranch begins construction this year on 1,999 homes on Bruce B. Downs Blvd. and developer Pulte Homes promises to adhere to old-style neighborhood design for at least part of its Wiregrass venture.

Likewise for Connerton, the "New Town" development that starts selling homes this year East of U.S. 41 in Land O Lakes. A quarter of its estimated 8,700 homes could have a traditional look.

Connerton's longer range plan involves building a sizeable walkable downtown of shops, apartments and government and business offices. The developer is Terrabrook, which built Tampa's Westchase community.

Analysts like Rose aren't sure what share of the market these throwback neighborhoods will capture.

"It will always be something of a niche because it's inherently more expensive, since you've got an alley behind a home as well as a street in front of it, and you have to do the porches and all the gingerbread," Rose said.

Expect to see a lot more townhomes and apartments too. No surprise there. With single-family home priced out of reach for many, the cheaper monthly payments of multifamily housing are just the ticket.

In 2005, housing analyst assume Pasco is largely immune to real estate recession, assuming mortgage interest rates stay below 8 percent, a near certainty.

At the start of this year, you could get a housing loan for 5.8 percent. That's still rock bottom compared with rates for most of the 70s, 80s and 90s. But there's a limit to the rate at which crews can slap up new houses, though few are sure what that limit is. Rose suspects Pasco might soon crest, considering last year's record of nearly 10,000 home building permits.

"I think the whole area may plateau very soon, which could be a good thing," Rose said. "A plateau's better than the number going down. We're not going to keep going up that fast."

"I think the whole area may plateau very soon, which could be a good thing," Rose said. "A plateau's better than the number going down. We're not going to keep going up that fast."
- Marvin Rose, Tampa Bay area housing analyst

In fact, Pasco's home construction slowed measurably at the end of 2004, though it appeared to be temporary blip.

November and December's permit totals for single-family homes were 363 and 334 respectively. Earlier in the year, 500 to 700 permits a month was the norm.

Builders simply ran out of stock. Developers, the businessmen who deliver serviceable lots to builders, failed to supply enough.

Communities like Meadow Pointe in Wesley Chapel and New River in Zephyrhills turned away hundreds of potential buyers.

The hurricanes took some of the blame. Construction site were often under water. Some work crews, trailed by tons of building equipment and supplies, joined the storm reconstruction brigades.

But the earth dearth won't last. Developers are racing to open up thousands of acres of land, including swaths and farmland on both sides of Curley Road in Wesley Chapel.

Seven Oaks and Meadow Pointe, the two biggest approved projects in Wesley Chapel, each promise 3,000 more lots in what's essentially an extension of New Tampa.

So if you're banking on a slump in construction in Pasco, particularly in its booming bedroom communities, you're surely making a sucker's bet.

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